Until free agency begins, most NFL mock drafts can’t amount to much more than a fun thought exercise.
But with the league’s negotiation window opening Monday, teams throughout the league have started to show their hand on their offseason priorities.
Signing an established veteran – or acquiring one via trade – can be the quickest way to patch up a pressing problem, and several franchises have already remade entire facets of their offense or defense by spending big. On the flip side, other teams navigating salary-cap concerns have shed top talent in a bid to reset.
And while there’s still plenty to be sorted out, the run of action has altered the draft outlook for several teams while also challenging some conventional wisdom.
Here’s our latest NFL mock draft projection after the first two days of free-agency moves:
1. New York Giants (projected trade with Tennessee Titans) – Cam Ward, QB, Miami (Fla.)
With the full draft order revealed Tuesday, is it too soon to already be projecting a trade to start things off? Not with the Giants’ desperation at quarterback only continuing to ratchet up as their available choices dwindle. Regardless of how their Aaron Rodgers pursuit pans out, New York might not be able to afford to take a passive approach to the draft and risk having Ward claimed before the team is on the clock. No matter when he takes the reins to the offense, the 6-foot-2, 219-pounder figures to be the dynamic catalyst who can push Malik Nabers and the rest of this group to the next level.
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2. Cleveland Browns – Abdul Carter, DE, Penn State
There’s no longer a question here of whether a Myles Garrett replacement is needed, as the six-time Pro Bowl pass rusher and Cleveland resolved their standoff with the richest deal for a non-quarterback in NFL history. Still, Carter is the best overall value here. The game-wrecking pass rusher would team with Garrett to help push the defense closer to its once-dominant form, allowing the Browns to stave off a rash decision at quarterback when there’s neither an attractive option nor sufficient support for an incoming rookie.
3. Titans (projected trade with Giants) – Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado
Unless Tennessee is sold on Ward, the optimal route for the team might be dealing back to this spot, which would ensure it stays within striking distance of Hunter or Carter while kicking the quarterback question down the road. The Heisman Trophy winner’s two-way dominance would be embraced by the Titans, though coach Brian Callahan said Hunter likely would start off at cornerback for the team while acclimating at receiver early on in his career.
4. New England Patriots – Will Campbell, OT, LSU
Armed with the most cap space of any team entering the week, New England made a handful of notable signings but didn’t pull off the splashy moves at offensive line or wide receiver that some expected. Taking Campbell here might further define this offseason as solid rather than spectacular, but the Patriots should still have plenty of interest in someone who can be a stabilizing force either at left tackle or guard.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
First-year head coach Liam Coen and general manager James Gladstone razed the Jaguars’ roster ahead of free agency, sending the likes of Christian Kirk and Evan Engram packing to make a clean split from the previous regime. Building back up won’t be easy, but Graham can help ramp up the effort as a relentless rusher who can shoot gaps with ease.
6. Las Vegas Raiders – Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
7. New York Jets – Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
He’s not Penei Sewell, but Membou might evoke some memories of the All-Pro right tackle for Aaron Glenn and the rest of the new Jets coaching staff that came over from Detroit. The 6-foot-4, 332-pounder showcased his supreme athleticism at the NFL Scouting Combine, and his rare blend of composure and forcefulness should come in handy for an offense that was severely lacking in both last season.
8. Carolina Panthers – Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia
After general manager Dan Morgan established the defensive line as his team’s primary point of focus entering free agency, the Panthers missed out on defensive tackle Milton Williams before settling on Tershawn Wharton and Bobby Brown III. But Carolina shouldn’t respond by insisting on spending its top draft pick up front, as Walker might be the most disruptive defensive prospect available at this point.
9. New Orleans Saints – Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
10. Chicago Bears – Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
It might be too early to declare mission accomplished on the Bears’ overhaul of their interior offensive line, but the drastic moves could indicate that Chicago is prepared to look to a different avenue of support for Caleb Williams. Adding Jeanty would change the entire complexion of the offense Ben Johnson is set to implement, with the tackle-breaking machine likely to prompt more loaded boxes and favorable looks for Williams in Year 2.
11. San Francisco 49ers – Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
An offseason of upheaval might have been necessary for San Francisco, but it comes with plenty of potential pain points, including the loss of cornerback Charvarius Ward and safety Talanoa Hufanga on the back end of the defense. Johnson could slide out of the top 10 after a disappointing final season with the Wolverines, but he’s a top-10 talent who would help the 49ers answer the Rams’ formidable receiver tandem of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
12. Dallas Cowboys – Shemar Stewart, DE, Texas A&M
Jerry Jones once again largely shrugged off free agency, making only a handful of early signings after declaring it was not a place he was looking to fill voids on the roster. Stewart might not be the Day 1 difference-maker Dallas will be under pressure to identify after getting meager returns from its last couple draft classes, but the 6-foot-5, 267-pounder would be an alluring option as a successor to DeMarcus Lawrence and pass-rushing partner for Micah Parsons.
13. Miami Dolphins – Kelvin Banks Jr., OT/G, Texas
Securing offensive guard James Daniels at least represents a start in Miami’s bid to strengthen its line. The real reflection of the Dolphins’ commitment, however, will come via the draft, where Banks would make a sensible solution for an interior that has been a significant vulnerability.
14. Indianapolis Colts – Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
Whether it’s Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson who ends up as the starter, Indianapolis should prioritize adding a legitimate receiving threat at tight end to simplify things for its QB1. Loveland might not be far off from Warren in what he can bring to an offense, with his massive catch radius and speed down the seam standing out as particularly valuable assets for the Colts.
15. Atlanta Falcons – Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
Not taking an edge rusher in the first round might stir plenty of unrest in Atlanta given how pervasive the team’s problem at the position has been. And while the Falcons re-upped Mike Hughes to hold down the spot opposite A.J. Terrell, Barron is a versatile piece on the back end who can thrive in the slot and an assortment of different coverage assignments.
16. Arizona Cardinals – Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
Josh Sweat’s arrival provides a much-needed infusion of playmaking prowess in the desert. To continue boosting the talent level on that front, Campbell should be eyed as someone who can create havoc early on with his pass-rushing ability while he develops his instincts as an off-ball linebacker.
17. Cincinnati Bengals – Walter Nolen, DT, Mississippi
With Trey Hendrickson appearing to be on his way out, Cincinnati is essentially boxed into using a premium pick on a pass rusher. Nolen’s physical approach makes him a solid fit for the AFC North, and he’s comfortable moving along the line to create mismatches.
18. Seattle Seahawks – Donovan Jackson, G, Ohio State
A readily evident deficiency on the interior has become an even more glaring necessity to address with the signing of Sam Darnold, who has shown that proper protection can be the difference between him being a confident distributor or wilting in the face of pressure. Stout yet fleet-footed, Jackson can keep all sorts of defensive linemen at bay while also helping Seattle adapt to a new identity rooted in the ground game.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Donovan Ezeiruaku, OLB, Boston College
Haason Reddick’s one-year deal might smooth out Tampa Bay’s edge rush in the short term, but it shouldn’t preclude further moves in that area. The compact and savvy Ezeiruaku would bring a different flavor to Todd Bowles’ defense as a master craftsman when it comes to working his way to the quarterback.
20. Denver Broncos – Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Out goes one highly regarded former North Carolina running back, in comes another? Javonte Williams’ unfulfilling tenure in Denver came to a close this week after the 2020 second-round pick agreed to a deal with the Cowboys. Now, another hard-charging former Tar Heel in Hampton could take over as the lead option in the backfield, even if he doesn’t exactly fit the profile of Sean Payton’s coveted ‘joker.’
21. Pittsburgh Steelers – Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon
The quarterback situation is still tenuous, with a retreat to Russell Wilson seemingly the only door open if the Rodgers pursuit falls through. But so long as Pittsburgh can reach a point of comfort behind center, it could be drawn to Harmon, whose penchant for pushing the pocket would fortify a front that has been propped up almost entirely by Cameron Heyward.
22. Los Angeles Chargers – Tyler Booker, G, Alabama
Free agency hasn’t yielded another legitimate weapon for Justin Herbert, and it only has drained the talent up front on defense with the loss of Poona Ford to the Rams. But Jim Harbaugh might have a hard time resisting Booker, who would be a natural fit to pave holes for new lead ball carrier Najee Harris.
23. Green Bay Packers – Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
The calls for a high-end pass catcher capable of consistently beating man coverage have only grown louder throughout Green Bay’s offseason. After stunning with a 4.29-second 40-yard dash at the combine, Golden has made a strong case that he could be the dynamic target required in order for Jordan Love and the rest of the offense to take a significant step forward.
24. Minnesota Vikings – Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
What better landing spot for this draft class’ most impressive athletic talent than a Brian Flores scheme? At 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds with 4.38-second speed in the 40-yard dash, Emmanwori seems like the kind of safety the Vikings defensive coordinator would dream of. He might need some time learning from six-time Pro Bowl selection Harrison Smith to get properly acclimated in the pros, but he should be a versatile and dynamic playmaker if he can hone his instincts, particularly in run support.
25. Houston Texans – Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
Between firing offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and then capping off the detonation of their front by trading away Laremy Tunsil, the Texans sent a clear message that their protection plan for C.J. Stroud wouldn’t stand. Now left to build the line from the ground up, Houston could turn to Simmons, who has all the traits of a high-end pass protector but is coming off a torn patellar tendon suffered in October.
26. Jets (projected trade with Los Angeles Rams) – Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
It’s difficult to identify a likely landing spot for Sanders in the top half of the draft given how free agency has played out, and the exercise doesn’t become much easier in the back end of Day 1. One thing that’s clear: There should be several teams prepared to trade back in a draft defined by its depth, and the Rams might again be drawn to that option after taking care of both the Matthew Stafford saga and Alaric Jackson extension. The Jets might not be in a rush to jump up for a quarterback given that the new regime is still surveying the landscape of a rocky roster, but Sanders is a confident distributor who could be worth the flier at this point, especially given the limited commitment to Justin Fields.
27. Baltimore Ravens – Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
The Ravens have long developed a reputation for pouncing on talented players who, for one reason or another, fall in the draft. That habit could re-emerge again in April with Starks, a savvy safety who would free up the defense to provide a range of different looks with two-time Pro Bowl selection Kyle Hamilton.
28. Detroit Lions – Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
Aidan Hutchinson’s return should rejuvenate a defensive line ravaged by injuries last season, but lingering concerns remain after defensive tackle Alim McNeill suffered a torn ACL in December. The 6-foot-4, 331-pound Grant is still learning to translate his rare movement abilities into consistent pass-rush production, but he can make teams pay if they don’t double-team him.
29. Washington Commanders – Mike Green, DE/OLB, Marshall
An aggressive approach to the trade market has landed Washington answers at two key spots: left tackle (Tunsil) and No. 2 wide receiver (Deebo Samuel). Those moves, however, have depleted the Commanders’ draft assets, which might leave this as the most reasonable route for patching up the edge rush. Green was the Football Bowl Subdivision leader in sacks with 17, but he has faced – and denied – two allegations of sexual assault, once in high school and again at Virginia prior to his transfer.
30. Buffalo Bills – Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky
With Joey Bosa now on board to pair with the recently extended Greg Rousseau on the edge, it’s time for Buffalo to take a closer look at its uneven secondary. Despite his slender build, the 5-foot-11, 183-pound Hairston brings an in-your-face mentality to every coverage rep.