Put four teams in a hat — shoot, put six or even seven teams in a hat — and then draw at random to pick which team leads the Big 12 heading into spring practice.
It’s a guessing game at this point. Kansas State, Arizona State? Kansas, Brigham Young, Iowa State? What about Texas Tech? Utah? Could Colorado take another leap under Deion Sanders?
More so than any other Power Four league, the Big 12 will open the spring with a wide-open race that could make this the most interesting conference in the Bowl Subdivision. But what the Big 12 lacks is one surefire bet to make the playoff and contend for the national championship.
Here’s our pre-spring rankings for the conference:
1. Kansas State
It boils down to this: In his second season as the team’s starter, quarterback Avery Johnson has to be more consistent if the Wildcats want end atop the conference. The pieces are in place should Kansas State’s transfer class boost a defense that was hit or miss in 2024. The offense will benefit from the return of running back Dylan Edwards, who had 196 yards on the ground in the Wildcats’ bowl game with departed starter DJ Giddens opting out.
2. Arizona State
The defending conference champions are a threat to get back into the College Football Playoff and advance deeper than last season’s exit in the quarterfinals. Nearly every position brings back experience and depth minus running back, where Cam Skattebo’s departure leaves a huge void. That gives the opportunity for quarterback Sam Leavitt to lead the offense.
SPRING POWER RANKINGS: Big Ten | SEC | ACC | Big 12
LOOKING AHEAD: Our way-too-early college football Top 25 for 2025
3. Kansas
Jalon Daniels is back at quarterback, and the Jayhawks will need him to deliver given the changes elsewhere on the offensive side of the ball. The biggest reason for optimism comes from how close this team was to having another Top 25 finish after six single-possession losses last season. That coincided with better play from Daniels after a slow start.
4. Brigham Young
This could be Kalani Sitake’s best team. The defense that led the Big 12 in scoring and total defense last season has to blend in several transfers to stay near the top of the conference. Offensively, the Cougars bring back quarterback Jake Retzlaff, a strong running back group and wide receiver Chase Roberts.
5. Iowa State
The schedule includes games against each of the four teams ranked higher than Iowa State in our pre-spring rankings, though all four come in Ames. Add in a third-year starting quarterback Rocco Becht and coach Matt Campbell’s track record to get a team very capable of winning the Big 12 and earning a playoff spot.
6. Texas Tech
Tech’s hopes hinge on how quickly and how deftly coach Joey McGuire blends in what may be the best transfer class in the FBS. This group will join established standouts such as quarterback Behren Morton and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez to give the Red Raiders a roster that on paper looks capable of double-digit wins.
7. TCU
Don’t worry about the offense. Why would you? Josh Hoover should be among the top quarterbacks in the Big 12 after throwing for 27 touchdowns last season. What TCU needs is more development on defense after that unit began to turn a corner in the second half under coordinator Andy Avalos. If Avalos can continue that trend, the Horned Frogs could be dangerous.
8. Utah
Meanwhile, Utah’s offense is a wild card with the hiring of former New Mexico coordinator Jason Beck and his quarterback from last year, Devon Dampier. If this thing clicks, the Utes might be the most physical team in the conference. And if the offense does rebound to join a solid defense, Utah could jump back toward nine or more wins.
9. Baylor
Baylor looks to carry over a six-game winning streak that saw the Bears playing as well as any team in the Big 12. One clear positive is the rapport between offensive coordinator Jake Spavital and quarterback Sawyer Robertson, a definite all-conference contender. Baylor is yet another team capable of playing for the conference championship.
10. Colorado
This will be an interesting case study for Deion Sanders’ style of roster management. The Buffaloes won’t have stars Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, two of the most irreplaceable players in the FBS. But the offense could remain efficient should new quarterback Kaidon Salter from Liberty be helped by a stronger running game. The baseline should be six or seven wins.
11. Houston
That Houston is ready to add two wins and get into the postseason should be unsurprising to anyone familiar with coach Willie Fritz’s career. With a defense that’s already in the top half of the Big 12 and an offense that’s set to be led by a high-profile quarterback transfer in Connor Weigman, the Cougars are ahead of schedule.
12. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State will be better, since the Cowboys really can’t get worse after going winless in league play last season. Given the uncertainty that dots the roster, picking Oklahoma State to get back to the postseason is pretty much a testament to the work coach Mike Gundy has done since taking over a generation ago. A lot will ride on how the quarterback position gets sorted.
13. West Virginia
The second Rich Rodriguez era begins with the Mountaineers lacking the pieces to effectively run his scheme. That’s going to hamstring his first campaign and keep West Virginia from doing more than hover around six wins. But look for the Mountaineers to improve as the season progresses and set things up for better days in 2026.
14. Central Florida
Scott Frost returns to Orlando after his failed stint at Nebraska. What did he learn from that experience? He’ll need more time to get UCF into Top 25 contention given the state of the roster and the difficult path through Big 12 play. Sometimes a reunion can work. But like Rich Rodriguez, he’ll need some time to get things sorted.
15. Arizona
The Wildcats are on shaky ground heading into coach Brent Brennan’s second season. While the offense can build around quarterback Noah Fifita, there are major gaps in nearly every other position group after an exodus of potential contributors into the transfer portal. While Brennan and his staff worked to rebuild, this roster isn’t built to contend on a weekly basis.
16. Cincinnati
The defense doesn’t look noticeably improved after cratering in the second half of last season and costing the Bearcats a bowl berth. Embattled coach Scott Satterfield should get things going on offense behind quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who had over 3,200 yards of total offense in 2024 but was lost in the shuffle amid the league’s deep quarterback group. But Cincinnati is not a safe bet to do more than claw around four to six wins, which would likely mean the end of the road for Satterfield.