Tennessee loss to Georgia leaves Vols needing help.
Indiana might enjoy two avenues to the CFP bracket: Either beat Ohio State, or at least go easy on the eyes in defeat.
Colorado is the Big 12’s best thing going and joins this playoff projection.
Welcome back to the bracket, Indiana.
The Hoosiers rejoined my College Football Playoff projection courtesy of Tennessee turtling up Saturday against Georgia, while Indiana enjoyed an open date.
Sitting in the clubhouse can be the safest spot during this tumultuous season, but Indiana must rejoin the playing field this weekend and put it on the line against Ohio State.
Indiana isn’t the only switcheroo in my latest bracket projection.
Let’s get to it.
Reminder: This is not a projection of what I think Tuesday’s CFP rankings will look like. Rather, this is my projection of what I think the playoff bracket will look like come selection Sunday on Dec. 8.
Also, remember: Top-four seeds would receive a first-round bye, while teams seeded Nos. 5 through 8 would host first-round playoff games. To earn a top-four seed, a team must win its conference championship.
1. Oregon (Big Ten)
Why do the Ducks fit so nicely into their new conference? Because they play defense. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel lost a bit of ground in the Heisman race in Oregon’s 16-13 victory at Wisconsin, but his defense had his back. Good teams play complementary football. Good teams also win their duds. Check. Check. But, Oregon better regain its fastball before the CFP. Last week’s projection: No. 1 seed.
CALM DOWN: The five biggest overreactions from Week 12
2. Alabama (SEC)
Nick Saban used to warn his teams about lower-tier opponents giving Alabama the “tin horn” treatment, but Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide kept their faculties about them in a rout of Mercer. They say teams that win in November get remembered, and Alabama gathers speed with the SEC championship game in its sights. Last week’s projection: No. 2 seed.
3. Miami (ACC)
Remember what I said about the clubhouse being a safe place? Miami enjoyed the sanctity of an open date, while Big 12 front-runner Brigham Young lost to Kansas and a few longshot playoff contenders saw their hopes extinguished. Now, Miami must beat Wake Forest and Syracuse or risk being booted from the ACC championship game. Last week’s projection: No. 4 seed.
4. Colorado (Big 12)
If Deion Sanders completes this Year 2 uprising by winning the Big 12, it’ll rank as one of the most remarkable turnarounds ever. He inherited a team that finished 1-11 the year before his hire. As Colorado charges into playoff contention, its two-way star player Travis Hunter deserves every Heisman consideration. Last week’s projection: Not projected into bracket.
5. Ohio State (at-large)
The Buckeyes trailed Northwestern 7-0 midway through the second quarter of a game played at Wrigley Field. To use a baseball analogy, the Buckeyes’ bats heated up their second time through the batting order. They rattled off 31 consecutive points. Next comes a clash with undefeated Indiana. Last week’s projection: No. 5 seed.
6. Penn State (at-large)
If Illinois loses once in the next two weeks, the Nittany Lions will coast into December without a win against an opponent in the top 25. But, overall record and eye test are an awfully persuasive combination on this selection committee, and Penn State achieves high marks in both areas. Last week’s projection: No. 6 seed.
7. Mississippi (at-large)
The Rebels better be done reading their press clippings from their Nov. 10 takedown of Georgia, because a trip to The Swamp awaits, and Florida showed improvement in an upset of LSU. A loss would wreck everything Ole Miss worked to claw back by beating Georgia, while a road win would be another step toward first-round host status. Last week’s projection: No. 8 seed.
8. Notre Dame (at-large)
This weekend’s game against undefeated Army will either knock the Irish from the playoff field or help solidify Notre Dame’s pitch to host a first-round game. Notre Dame’s strength of schedule leaves much to be desired, but the committee can’t resist five consecutive wins by at least 18 points. Notre Dame’s defense has been nails. Flipping Ole Miss and Notre Dame in my pecking order gives the committee an avenue to avoid an Ole Miss-Georgia rematch. Last week’s projection: No. 7 seed.
9. Georgia (at-large)
When evaluating Georgia’s seed, the committee must reckon with the Bulldogs’ strong résumé versus its record and head-to-head loss to Ole Miss. So far, the committee has shown it mostly values record over strength of schedule, but Georgia gained another résumé gold star by beating Tennessee, its third win against a team currently ranked in the top 20. Any stumble by Penn State, Ole Miss or Notre Dame would strengthen Georgia’s case for a better seed. Last week’s projection: No. 9 seed.
10. Texas (at-large)
If you’re wondering my logic for Texas being the 10-seed, it goes like this: I project wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M the next two weeks, so the Longhorns reach 11-1. Then, Texas loses to Alabama in the SEC championship. Would the committee really bump from the bracket an 11-win SEC runner-up that finished all alone atop the SEC standings after the regular season? I think not. But the lack of quality wins push them behind other teams in the conference. Last week’s projection: No. 10 seed.
11. Indiana (at-large)
When Tennessee lost to Georgia by two touchdowns, it broadened the crease for Indiana to lose to Ohio State and still qualify for the playoff at 11-1, despite the shaky strength of schedule of the Hoosiers and a lack of marquee victories. Indiana has aced the eye test all season. It probably can afford a loss Saturday as long as they stay easy on the eyes. Or, win and remove any doubt. Last week’s projection: Not projected into bracket.
12. Boise State (Group of Five)
Army and Tulane of the American Athletic wait in the on-deck circle for this Group of Five bid, pining for a Boise State slip-up. Broncos tailback Ashton Jeanty won’t let it happen. He logged his 10th consecutive 100-yard rushing game in a win against San Jose State. Put aside the Group of Five status, because this is not a team to relish facing in the first round. Last week’s projection: No. 12 seed.
Dropping out of last week’s bracket projection
∎ BYU
∎ Tennessee
Why my latest CFP bracket projection does not include BYU
BYU’s loss to Kansas almost certainly cements the Big 12 as a one-bid league. The Cougars control their path to the Big 12 championship game, but they’re on a course to meet Colorado, and I trust the Buffaloes more right now.
Why my latest CFP bracket projection does not include Tennessee
The Vols played solidly in the first quarter against Georgia before looking remarkably pedestrian throughout the next three quarters. Tennessee’s offense reaffirmed the selection committee’s concerns that it lacks explosiveness, and the Vols’ usually dependable defense went limp.
With a chance for a statement victory, the Vols instead made a statement for being a fringe playoff team. In a crowded bubble, someone must go.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.