The first major upset of the NFL’s 2025 league year went down Tuesday night – unless, that is, your free agency bracket actually had Russell Wilson advancing to a new employer before Aaron Rodgers did.
Regardless, that is apparently the case, Wilson agreeing to join the New York Giants, per multiple reports on a one-year deal. For a season of work, he’s guaranteed to make $10.5 million – a figure that can double to $21 million if he reaches his incentives.
While this outcome isn’t necessarily a shock, the timing is a bit surprising – and lends itself to a look at the winners and losers of this somewhat curious transaction:
WINNERS
Russell Wilson
The 2025 options for Mr. Unlimited – sorry, I can never resist – were decidedly limited. But Wilson will apparently remain a starting quarterback in the NFL for a 14th consecutive season, at least at the start. The Giants still own the No. 3 overall pick of the NFL draft, and Wilson’s arrival should hardly preclude them from selecting a young passer … but more on that later. (And, for whatever it’s worth, New York could also be the ideal launching pad for Wilson’s post-NFL career, whether it entails media, business, politics or some combination thereof.)
Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen?
The Giants’ embattled head coach and general manager, respectively – both are heading into their fourth season – surely imported Russ with the sign-off of team owner John Mara. Wilson’s age (36) and one-year leash are clearly indicative that he’s a bridge to somewhere, whether to a rookie drafted next month or next year, if not another veteran down the line. In any case, this decision seems to buy the team’s brain trust more time in the aftermath of questionable moves in recent years – namely the extension for former QB Daniel Jones and the choice not to re-sign RB Saquon Barkley, who went on to justify Mara’s worst fears by leading the archrival Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl title.
New York Jets
They get the back-page win in Gotham for signing the best Steelers quarterback of 2024, Justin Fields, who got a much stronger contract (2 years for $40 million with 75% of it guaranteed) than Wilson. The NYJ have also likely created better near- and long-term options for themselves with their direction than the Giants probably did.
Pittsburgh Steelers
While Rodgers isn’t in the building yet – back in the building (oops) – at least the Steelers no longer have to consider what would be an awkward second date with Wilson, whom head coach Mike Tomlin forced into the lineup last season (despite Fields’ strong start) only to experience greatly diminished returns. Pittsburgh lost its final five games of the 2024 campaign, crushed in the wild-card round by the hated Baltimore Ravens, and the organization would doubtless have faced a lot of heat locally and nationally had it wound up running it back with Wilson.
Ciara
The entertainment career of Wilson’s famous wife will almost certainly thrive to a much greater degree in the Big Apple than her husband’s – and Ciara should certainly have superior local opportunities than she would have had in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Nashville, Greenland, et al.
Malik Nabers
The wideout’s Pro Bowl rookie season was OBJ-esque in terms of its impact (109 catches for 1,204 yards and 7 TDs) and dynamism to the Giants offense – despite what he was working with behind center. Wilson is a lot of things, but dummy is not among them. Expect him to feed Nabers – easily the club’s best weapon and probably its best player – on short, intermediate and moonball throws. And expect the young star’s production to escalate one year after he was catching passes from Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle.
Shedeur Sanders?
Despite Wilson’s arrival, the University Colorado star should very much remain in play to be taken with that No. 3 draft pick. Should that become reality, Sanders would not have to immediately take the reins of a bad team – a third-place finish in the NFC East in 2025 would qualify as a surprise – and would instead have the benefit of learning behind Wilson, who would likely be a far more intentional mentor than, say, Rodgers.
LOSERS
Shedeur Sanders?
Still, Wilson gives Big Blue options, Schoen and Daboll seemingly no longer boxed in to picking a passer with that first-rounder. And that could mean a short slide (or worse) for Sanders, whose draft stock seems to have a lot more variance than QB Cam Ward of the University of Miami (Fla.), the presumed No. 1 pick.
Malik Nabers
While Wilson should be an improvement over New York’s 2024 passers, he’s also a temp – and that means whatever chemistry Nabers forms with him will be makeshift before he has to start over with Sanders or someone else in 2026.
Jameis Winston and Tommy DeVito
Winston, the No. 1 pick of the 2015 draft but now something of an NFL journeyman, agreed to a two-year, $8 million deal with the Giants on Friday – the kind of arrangement that suggested he might have the role Wilson seems to have already wrested away. DeVito will also be back in 2025, but it appears his opportunity to play has been severely curbed after the undrafted free agent started eight times in his first two seasons, the local Jersey kid known as “Tommy Cutlets” often producing sufficiently encouraging results to suggest he might have a decent future at least as a pro backup. Now? He and Winston could be QB3 and QB4, respectively.
Aaron Rodgers?
It’s kinda seemed like he’s been trending toward the Steel City for a minute and preparing himself to give up Broadway and Knicks games after he embraced the big city following 18 years in Green Bay. So maybe the impact on Rodgers here is negligible. But if he ever considered the Giants a backup plan or even a negotiating ploy … welp.
Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen?
After reviving Jones in 2022 and producing a surprising 9-7-1 campaign that included a playoff win at Minnesota … the Giants’ decision-making tandem is 9-25 over the past two seasons while suffering an additional embarrassing defeat while being portrayed in an offseason version of HBO’s “Hard Knocks.” Wilson may or may not punch up this offense, but if the Giants wind up in position to draft Arch Manning in 2026 as the long-awaited successor to Uncle Eli … well, seems highly unlikely Daboll and Schoen would be around to benefit from it.
Russell Wilson
Despite starting just 12 games in 2024, he earned his 10th Pro Bowl nod – though only after other AFC quarterbacks backed out – while going 6-6, including the postseason ouster. And while Wilson’s numbers were generally in line with his career norms last season – on a per-game basis – if you watched the Steelers play, it was obvious that he was the beneficiary of some inordinately fluky plays and generally favorable matchups … until the team’s stretch-run implosion. Also far less mobile than he once was, Wilson was highly ineffective later in the year, averaging 171.2 passing yards over his final five regular-season starts. He seems to have yet another opportunity to rekindle his glory days in Seattle, but Wilson will also be doing it on what is effectively a QB2 salary … which means very little job security as his late-career arc continues to seemingly trend decidedly downward.
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