CLEARWATER, Fla. — They are greatness on a treadmill, undeniably taking steps forward – from 87 to 90 to 95 wins – even as the forces of October seem to blow them back.
Yes, digressing from World Series runner-up to NLCS loser to NLDS sucker-punch can create undeniable appearances of regression, at least externally. For the Philadelphia Phillies, though, channeling those increasingly early playoff failures into something, anything constructive come next autumn is imperative.
“You always gain knowledge from years past,” says Kyle Schwarber, their designated hitter and often leadoff man. “And we’ve had a lot of really good things we can look back on and grab from that.
“And we can also look at the failure part and be very good self-evaluators and evaluate, ‘OK, that didn’t go right.’ And pull from that and try to be better going forward.
“It’s been the majority of the same group the last two or three years. All that experience now culminates in this year and seeing if we can perform, be healthy, find a way into the postseason format and see what we can do.”
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And suddenly, time could be running short.
The raucous gang that’s turned Citizens Bank Ballpark into the loudest postseason joint in the big leagues – punctuated by unmatched clubhouse bacchanalia when they prevail – is entering something of a collective walk year.
Schwarber and catcher J.T. Realmuto are both entering the final year of their contracts, with Realmuto’s five-year, $115 million deal potentially marking the end of a Philly run that began with a trade from Miami before the 2019 campaign.
And it still seems like yesterday Schwarber, who turns 32 on March 5, parachuted into Clearwater in March 2022, shortly after the lockout-delayed spring training began, his four-year, $79 million deal soon followed by a $100 million outlay for Nick Castellanos to lengthen the Phillies’ lineup.
The investments have paid off tenfold.
Those Phillies parlayed 87 wins into a wild-card berth and rode it all the way to Game 6 of the ’22 World Series, where the Houston Astros finally turned them back. But the October backslides – beginning with blowing a 3-1 lead in the 2023 NLCS to the Arizona Diamondbacks and bottoming out with a 3-1 loss to the New York Mets in the ’24 NLDS – take some of the starch out of the good.
The Phillies enter this season as defending NL East champions for the first time since 2012. Yet that flag was won largely before the weather turned crisp.
Cruel autumn
It’d be trite to term the Phillies’ season a “tale of two halves,” but it would also be painfully accurate. They sent a franchise-record eight players to the All-Star Game, by which time they’d posted a 62-34 record and amassed an 8 ½ game division lead.
And while that lead never dipped below five games, their performance went south in the 66 games after the break – in almost every respect.
First half: A .756 OPS, .331 OBP, 113+ adjusted OPS.
Second half: .741, .316, 107.
On the pitching side? A first-half 3.42 ERA, .657 OPS against and 3.41 strikeout-walk ratio devolved to 4.49, .767 and 2.97.
“It’s really hard, as good as we were in the first half, to replicate that in the second half,” says Realmuto. “To have two halves that dominant. For me it’s about playing our best baseball at the right time.”
The team never played so poorly as to provoke panic, and the malaise could be at least partially attributed to the perpetually comfortable division cushion. Yet before they could flip a switch, the Mets flattened them, their once-stout bullpen suddenly unsteady and manager Rob Thomson juggling the lineup and benching All-Star third baseman Alec Bohm.
With six players locked into nine-figure contracts, this winter was not the time for a revamp, not that one was necessarily needed.
Instead, club president Dave Dombrowski made significant but not sweeping changes: Left fielder Max Kepler’s bat will be a big improvement over Johan Rojas, closer Jordan Romano should backfill the ninth inning after Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman departed, and the trade for lefty Jesús Luzardo is insurance against rotation regression, and a bridge to top prospect Andrew Painter’s arrival.
“I’m really excited about the pieces that Dave and John did bring in and add to the group we had last year,” says Realmuto. “If the core group of guys here just do our part and get a little better and continue to work, we’re going to be in a good spot at the end of the year.”
That core remains almost peerless. Ace Zack Wheeler nearly won the Cy Young Award, and he and Aaron Nola combined to throw 399 innings. Perpetual MVP threat Bryce Harper’s .898 OPS ranked fourth in the NL, and he, Wheeler, second baseman Bryson Stott and outfielder Brandon Marsh were all Gold Glove finalists.
Yet right fielder Nick Castellanos was simply league average in his production, and Bohm epitomized the club’s softer second half numbers, with a .268 OBP and four homers in his final 37 games before a playoff benching.
“If you were to look at the team on paper, it’s really good,” says Schwarber. “We showed that at points last year, how great of a team we can be and are. We won the division and obviously had an early exit, right?
“It comes down to us to execute in the postseason. There’s no surprises to our roster. People are going to look at our lineup, our starters and bullpen and know everyone. I think that’s the beauty of it – it comes down to us to perform and figure out a way to be the last team standing.”
Yet it’s not like the club can simply set an egg timer for mid-September to ensure they roust themselves from the second-half doldrums, right?
“Definitely not. You gotta work,” says Realmuto. “And by the time September hits, you gotta know what you’re doing well and not doing well and capitalize on those things you’re doing well.
“And the things you’re not doing well, do those less often.”
Always in it to win it
The NL East stakes were raised with Juan Soto’s $765 million deal with the Mets, who came tantalizingly close to a World Series trip. Yet in what figures to be a three-team race, the Phillies should offer greater pitching certainty than the Mets or Atlanta Braves.
And should Painter be ready for a summer promotion, he could provide a second-half gust at their backs that was missing last year.
That would be a welcome youth infusion for a club not getting any younger. Realmuto, who turns 34 in March, missed five weeks after undergoing meniscus repair on his right knee in June, and didn’t have his legs under him for a while after.
He’d welcome a return in 2026, better yet if it dovetails with the Phillies’ prosperity.
“My mindset’s kind of the same every year: If what I want happens, then everybody’s happy at the end of the year,” says Realmuto, who re-signed on a five-year, $115.5 million deal two months after hitting free agency in 2021. “If we win, if the Phillies win, win the division, win the World Series, the contract stuff will take care of itself. My free agency will all take care of itself.”
Schwarber is in a similar situation. The Philles could be primed for a more significant reset after 2026, when Castellanos comes off the books and prospects like shortstop Aidan Miller and Justin Crawford are closer to contributing.
Still, Schwarber’s elite power and on-base ability – he’s averaged 44 homers and a .344 OBP in his three seasons – bring plenty of upside, even as his positional limitations, particularly with Harper ensconced at first base, limit roster flexibility.
Time flies when you’re having fun.
“It’s been a quick four years, going into the fourth year of it,” says Schwarber, who was non-tendered by the Chicago Cubs in 2020 and played for Washington and Boston in 2021. “But it’s been great. For me, it’s kind of like I’ve got that first chance where you feel you can settle in, get to know a group and kind of keep blossoming into who you are as a person, a player.
“It’s been such a great time and all you can ask for – walking into a spring training clubhouse and you’ve got an opportunity to win. That’s been my biggest thing – I love being on winning teams. We’re not playing to get through a 162-game season. We’re playing for more.”
And still well-positioned to finish the job.
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