There’s a subtle but important fight beginning Tuesday, one last stand for the rest of college football against the overwhelming might of the SEC and Big Ten.
One last chance to show some negotiation chops.
The Big Ten and SEC want straight seeding for the 2025 College Football Playoff. The ACC, Big 12 and the other six FBS conferences don’t.
The question is, how badly do the Big Ten and SEC want it?
Bad enough to make the other conferences financially whole no matter the format? Bad enough for guarantees with the future College Football Playoff format beginning in 2026, where the Big Ten and SEC don’t need unanimous agreement to change the rules?
Simply put, everyone gets a vote for the 2025 format, and it must be unanimous. Beginning in 2026 and moving forward, the Big Ten and SEC can do whatever they want.
That’s what makes Tuesday’s CFP meeting in Dallas so critical. Despite an offseason full of acknowledging future format change beginning in 2026, there’s still 2025 to deal with.
In 2026 and beyond, the SEC and Big Ten will set the format, and how the more than $1 billion annually is paid out — just for the CFP. They were given this power last year when the new media rights contract was negotiated because the rest of the Bowl Subdivision didn’t want the two super conferences pulling away and forming their own association.
And taking the College Football Playoff with them.
“It would be great for our sport if we had a system that rewarded the regular season, and the road teams take to get there,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said late last season. ‘I can’t imagine a more difficult road than going through our conference.’
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So here we are at the fork in the road, and the obvious flaw in the 2025 format needs to be addressed. But for the current format of rewarding first-round byes to conference champions, No. 3 seed Boise State would’ve been No. 9 in a 1-12 seeded format, and No. 4 Arizona State would’ve been No.12 ― per the final CFP poll.
More important, Oregon’s reward for earning the No. 1 overall seed would’ve been a second-round game against the winner of No. 8 Indiana vs. No. 9 Boise State — instead of a Rose Bowl against eventual national champion Ohio State.
Georgia’s reward for earning the No. 2 overall seed would’ve been a Sugar Bowl against the winner of No. 7. Tennessee vs. No. 10 SMU — instead of a game against eventual national runner-up Notre Dame.
See the problem?
The Big Ten and SEC say the straight seed format is best for all involved, and places an emphasis on successful regular seasons. But it would take a rare season from a champion of the Big 12 or ACC (or Group of Five champion) to supplant the SEC and Big Ten champions from the top two spots in any straight seeded poll.
Since the playoff system began in 2014, only ACC schools Clemson (four times) and Florida State have been ranked in the top two. Oregon (2014), Oklahoma (2017) and Washington (2023) were also ranked in the top two from the Pac-12 and Big 12, but are now part of either the SEC or Big Ten.
The ACC, Big 12 and Group of Five conferences see this through a financial lens. First-round byes are guaranteed moves into the quarterfinals, where teams are paid more to reach that level: $4 million for qualifying for the CFP, and $4 million for reaching the quarterfinals, $6 million for reaching the semifinals, and $6 million for reaching the final.
By moving to straight seeding for the 2025 season, the Big 12, ACC and Group of Five are potentially giving up $4 million by eliminating a direct move into the quarterfinal round without the bye.
The Big Ten and SEC say they want the same straight seeded bracket system used to determine nearly every NCAA sport. The same system that’s easy to follow and understand, and sell to media rights partners.
A system that has used tournaments and brackets to grow NCAA sports, be it through media rights deals, advertising, and yes, gambling. Men’s basketball has essentially become a five-week sport because of the wildly successful tournament, fueled – in large part – by gambling.
You don’t really think CBS and Turner Sports paid $8.8 billion for regular-season basketball games, do you?
A straight seed tournament also eliminates confusion for the CFP selection committee, which was hamstrung by the quirky system in the first year of the 12-team format.
“Those folks have a very difficult job,” Penn State coach James Franklin said last month. “We all should be for what makes it easier for all involved.”
But at what price for the Big Ten and SEC?
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.