The finale of championship Sunday will feature the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs.
Josh Allen and the Bills got the better of the Chiefs during the regular season. Allen is 4-1 all-time versus Kansas City in the regular season. However, Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 versus Allen and the Bills in the playoffs.
The Chiefs are riding an eight-game postseason winning streak as they head into Sunday’s AFC title game.
Can the Bills reach their first Super Bowl since the 1993 season. Or will Mahomes and the Chiefs make a third straight trip to the Super Bowl? USA TODAY Sports provides the three keys to Sunday’s AFC championship game.
Which team can unlock secondary pass catchers
Tight end Travis Kelce is Kansas City’s leading pass catcher. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir is Buffalo’s top receiver. However, both teams need a secondary option to step up Sunday. For the Chiefs, it’s key that DeAndre Hopkins and other wide receivers get open and provide a spark for an inconsistent Kansas City passing game. Mahomes only passed for 177 yards in the divisional round. Kelce had a big game at tight end, but rookie Xavier Worthy was the only Chiefs wide receiver to record a catch versus the Houston Texans. That won’t be enough against Buffalo.
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It’s important for the Bills to get tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receiver Amari Cooper involved in the offense. Kincaid only had one catch and Cooper was held without a catch in last week’s win against the Baltimore Ravens. Chiefs standout cornerback Trent McDuffie will likely be matched up often with Shakir, so it’ll be important for Kincaid and Cooper to produce. Buffalo’s undefeated this year when Kincaid has over 50 receiving yards. Allen finished last week’s win with just 127 passing yards.
Establish the ground game
Isiah Pacheco compiled a 2023 postseason-high 313 rushing yards and was instrumental in Kansas City’s Super Bowl 58 run.
Injuries have hampered Pacheco this year. He’s back healthy but hasn’t run with the same power and ferocity. Will Pacheco return to form or can Kareem Hunt be a spark in the backfield? The Chiefs were held to 50 rushing yards and averaged just 2.3 yards per carry last week. Kansas City ranked seventh in run block win rate during the regular season, per ESPN. When the Chiefs get their ground game going, it opens up their aerial attack.
For Buffalo, Allen’s 26-yard touchdown run on fourth down in the fourth quarter was the back-breaking play of the game in their Week 11 win against Kansas City. The Bills had a league-high 32 rushing touchdowns this year and boasts a top 10 rushing offense.
The Bills were able to possess the football for nearly 32 minutes in their divisional win because they ran 36 times for 147 yards and three touchdowns. Buffalo will likely have a similar strategy versus Kansas City.
The Chiefs touted the NFL’s eighth best run defense and Buffalo ranked 12th in run defense during the regular season.
Win turnover battle
The Bills have an NFL-high 35 takeaways and an NFL-low eight turnovers this season (including playoffs). Allen and company haven’t committed a turnover in their last four playoff games. They are the first team ever without a turnover in four straight postseason games.
On the other side, the Chiefs haven’t had a turnover in eight straight games. Kansas City’s last turnover was against the Bills in Week 11, a game in which they lost.
Buffalo’s two takeaways played a big role in its win in Week 11, and the team’s three takeaways paved the way to their divisional round victory.
These two clubs aren’t prone to giving the football away. Any turnover on Sunday could drastically swing momentum.
Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Tyler Dragon on X @TheTylerDragon.
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