Alabama moves back into College Football Playoff bracket projection of USA TODAY Sports heading into Saturday’s crucial SEC matchup with LSU while Brigham Young takes over as the top team in the Big 12 after losses by Iowa State and Kansas State.
The Crimson Tide already have two losses. But with a win in hand against Georgia and the chance to add a victory against the Tigers, Alabama is in position to earn an at-large playoff bid by closing things out with an unbeaten November.
BYU takes over as the Big 12 representative after an upset-heavy weekend featuring the league’s best teams. In addition to Kansas State falling to Houston for its second loss, Iowa State lost to Texas Tech after failing to make a late defensive stand.
These unexpected losses increase the possibility the Big 12 is eventually a one-bid conference.
That’s great news for the Big Ten and SEC, which continue to dominate our bracket. The two leagues also dominated Tuesday night’s debut playoff rankings, with 12 of the top 25 teams.
WEEKEND FORECAST: SEC clashes top Week 11 picks for all Top 25 games
College Football Playoff bracket projection
Indiana makes the bracket for the first time this season. The Hoosiers also trailed for the first time on the year this past Saturday, falling behind 10-0 to Michigan State. All Indiana did from there was score the next 47 points to post yet another blowout in Big Ten play.
The Hoosiers are in position to reach the Big Ten championship game with a win at Ohio State later this month. Easier said than done, of course; the Buckeyes have won 28 games in a row in the series.
But this offense gives them a chance. Behind new coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana leads the Big Ten in yards per game and is a hair behind Ohio State in yards per play. The Hoosiers also rank second nationally in scoring at 46.6 points per game.
The big question leading into the matchup with the Buckeyes is whether Indiana can get in at 11-1 and in a tie for third in the Big Ten. On one hand, the offensive metrics and eye test will clearly favor the Hoosiers. The playoff selection committee will also admire that the one loss came to OSU, which would at a minimum be playing for the Big Ten crown.
The issue will be a weak strength of schedule and a poor quality of wins. As of now, IU has two wins against teams with a winning record, Nebraska and Washington, with the chance to add two more against the Buckeyes and Michigan. There’s no guarantee that the Cornhuskers, Huskies and Wolverines get to six wins, though.
Four teams to watch
Tulane
It was a very good weekend for the Green Wave. For one, Tulane cruised past Charlotte to move to 7-2 overall and a perfect 5-0 in the American Athletic. Also, Navy and Memphis both lost, paving Tulane’s path to the AAC championship game. They need help in the Mountain West to knock out Boise State, but the Green Wave are taking care of business on their end.
Texas Tech
If not for giving away a 34-21 lead in the fourth quarter of an eventual 35-34 loss to TCU two weeks ago, Texas Tech would be 5-1 in Big 12 play and in sole possession of second place behind BYU. As it stands, the Red Raiders are still a threat to play for the conference championship. Beating Colorado on Saturday would give them tiebreakers against two of the main contenders atop the league standings.
Mississippi
Saturday’s 63-31 win at Arkansas was a reminder of how good this team can be. With losses to Kentucky and LSU already in hand, both by a field goal, the Rebels’ chances hinge on Saturday’s matchup with Georgia. While there is an avenue to reach the SEC championship game, the odds are so low and unfeasible that any playoff hopes travel the at-large route. Beating the Bulldogs would make that realistic.
Minnesota
Minnesota isn’t in the playoff mix but the Gophers have a chance to play spoiler by beating Penn State on Nov. 23, which would knock out the Nittany Lions and make things easier for Indiana. Minnesota would also move into the mix for a major-bowl bid. Winners of four in a row and one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten, the Gophers could’ve been a serious playoff contender had they not handed over winnable games against North Carolina (19-17) and Michigan (27-24).