Welcome to The Campaign Moment, your guide to the biggest developments in a 2024 election that’s increasingly all about vibes — and vetting the VP picks.
(Make sure you are subscribed to this newsletter here. You can also hear my analysis weekly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.)
The big moment
It’s getting to be crunchtime for Vice President Harris’s choice of a running mate.
The pick is due by Aug. 7, when the Democratic Party aims to formally nominate its ticket, solidifying Harris’s elevation to the top slot after President Biden’s exit from the contest. But we just got word that Harris is planning to tour the battlegrounds with the pick next week, which suggests it could come before the deadline.
Meanwhile, we’re seeing the candidates wage what’s basically a sprint of a campaign for the job — a remarkable scene in itself. They’ve done events for her both virtually and on the campaign trail, they’ve blanketed the airwaves with media appearances, and many of them seem to be making the case as much for themselves as for Harris.
That sprint of a campaign — along with two candidates indicating Monday that they’re not the pick — has crystallized the choice for Harris. So I thought it a good time to update my previous handicapping based on the latest.
The momentum candidate: Walz
Nobody’s stock has risen over the past week as much as Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), who was previously thought to be something of a dark horse for the job. Walz has pushed himself into the conversation with a barrage of media appearances in which he’s played up his rural roots and everyman appeal. Perhaps nobody has “campaigned” for the job quite as much as he has.
But subtly, perhaps the best argument for Walz is how he’s seeded the biggest emerging Democratic talking point: that the GOP ticket is “weird.” Walz almost seemed to stumble upon it a week ago, but it quickly took hold.
The other messenger candidate: Buttigieg
To the extent this VP pick is about taking the fight to Republicans, Walz has some real competition for that mantle: from Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who has also been all over the airwaves.
And while Walz is the hot new thing, Buttigieg has been doing this kind of thing for years — even going on Fox News to joust with its hosts. An appearance this past Sunday in which Buttigieg declined to accept the Fox host’s premises has been shared far and wide on the left.
The swing-state picks: Shapiro and Kelly
While those two candidates might be the insurgents, two potential swing-state-focused picks thought to be leading contenders from the start still loom large — particularly, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.).
Shapiro has been touring his home state in a potential preview of what he could provide the Harris campaign in a crucial state. And a Fox News poll this weekend reinforced the asset he could be. Shapiro’s favorable rating in Pennsylvania was 61 percent — compared to just 32 percent unfavorable — and more than 3 in 10 Donald Trump supporters liked him. He even led Trump by 10 points in a hypothetical matchup as the party’s nominee.
Kelly has been quieter than these other candidates, and he maintains a lower profile. But an ABC News/Ipsos poll this week showed him with the best net image rating of any of the potential picks.
The anti-Vance: Beshear
While other candidates have gone after JD Vance — Walz’s “weird” comments have keyed on Vance — Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) has focused his pitch extensively on the GOP vice-presidential pick. He’s called Vance a “phony” who has “exploited” and exaggerated his ties to eastern Kentucky and Appalachia. He’s even said he would be eager to debate Vance. That’s a pretty eager (and arguably presumptuous) statement.
To the extent the name of the game is to create a contrast in running mates, Beshear has positioned himself as that.
The others
Two major candidates thought to be in the mix signaled Monday that we should look elsewhere. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) said that he’s pulling out of consideration, while Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) said she’s “not a part of the vetting” — after previously suggesting that she wouldn’t take the job.
Others who have been mentioned but haven’t been as out front include Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.
Another key moment
The presidential race is suddenly blocking out the political sun. But federal and state primaries are kicking back into gear after a sleepy month of July. And we start with a big one Tuesday in Arizona.
The Washington Post’s Amy B Wang has your primer for that state’s primaries. A couple big storylines to watch:
It’s long been assumed that former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake would win the GOP nomination for Senate, and that still appears likely — especially after Lake got some late help from Trump. But the most recent polling suggests that Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb has narrowed the gap somewhat, as some fret that Lake can’t win a general election. (Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has regularly led in head-to-head matchups with Lake). If Lake doesn’t win big, expect some more fretting.
One of the ugliest and most contentious Republican primaries in recent history culminates tonight in the 8th Congressional District. It features a pair of statewide candidates who lost alongside Lake in 2022 — former Senate nominee Blake Masters and former attorney general nominee Abe Hamadeh — along with state House Speaker Ben Toma and former congressman Trent Franks. Masters has not-subtly pointed to Hamadeh’s heritage and lack of a family, while Hamadeh has played up his “testosterone” and accused Masters of “having a mental breakdown.” Trump previously endorsed Hamadeh but hedged his bets over the weekend by also endorsing Masters (something he’s done before, by endorsing “Eric” in a 2022 Senate primary featuring more than one Eric.)
A momentous number
8 percent
That’s the percentage of voters in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll who were so-called “double-haters” — or who disliked both of the two major-party presidential candidates.
That number is way down from where it’s been for much of the 2024 election cycle; it’s generally hovered around 20 percent. The number has declined given how much better voters like Harris than President Biden, but it’s also declined in part because of improved views of Trump. (Multiple recent high-quality polls show around 47 or 48 percent of voters like Trump.)
That renders this group less pivotal for the race ahead, at least for now. But we shouldn’t rule out the possibility that both Harris and Trump are enjoying a bit of a temporary honeymoon — Harris after replacing Biden, and Trump after the assassination attempt and the recent Republican National Convention.
The good news for Harris: Recent polling suggests she does better with these double-haters than Biden was doing. A Fox News poll in Wisconsin showed her winning them by 25 points, after such voters were split in the poll back in April.
Take a moment to read:
“Rising from Biden’s shadow, Harris faces crucial test on foreign policy” (Washington Post)
“‘White Dudes for Harris’ — including The Dude himself — raise over $4M” (Washington Post)
“Vance tells donors Harris change was a ‘sucker punch,’ at odds with campaign” (Washington Post)
“Trump, with a history of sexist attacks, again faces a female opponent” (Washington Post)
“Kamala Harris’s image bump, by the numbers” (Washington Post)
“With Dueling Ads, Harris and Trump Both Try to Define Her as a Candidate” (New York Times)